Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Arkansas

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Arkansas in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Arkansas in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 84.0% for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.837) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.004).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.7155 9.31%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5761 -1.78%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.0878 -1.36%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0234 -0.18%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0082 -0.49%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0386 0.31%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0070 -0.16%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.4180 3.60%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0012 -0.02%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0152 0.08%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0141 -0.17%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.4356 -5.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.4649 -5.68%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0047 0.05%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0375 -0.29%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0070 0.12%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0012 -0.02%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.4157 8.16%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.4813 6.09%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0691 -1.25%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0316 0.92%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0105 -0.03%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.4122 -3.88%
Low Income 0.0081 0.8349 0.68%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0129 -0.07%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1194 1.85%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0012 -0.02%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6358 12.01%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.2272 0.36%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.2939 -0.43%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0105 0.15%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.3489 2.17%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0047 0.23%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0117 -0.06%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0738 -0.15%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0164 0.07%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.2763 0.61%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 240.5000 -4.40%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0135 2.86%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0427 3.68%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1339 2.54%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0105 -5.59%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0426 -20.73%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1231 46.25%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2512 20.69%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1016 -9.07%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0210 9.49%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0462 10.24%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0359 2.45%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,193 for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42607) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-36413).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.7320 -$2,080
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5760 -$497
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.0718 -$226
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0152 -$80
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0041 -$25
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0373 $9
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0069 -$30
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.4268 -$992
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0014 -$9
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0152 -$41
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0138 $96
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.4213 $153
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.4972 $411
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0041 -$5
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0359 $203
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0069 $28
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0000 $0
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.4724 $456
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.5097 $1,847
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0622 -$61
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0318 -$43
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0110 -$49
Single Parent 145.7630 0.4213 $61
Low Income -332.4067 0.8191 -$272
Homeless -446.4262 0.0069 -$3
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1008 $203
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0014 -$3
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6920 $559
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 3389.3900 $1,238
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.1975 $397
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.3039 $208
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0110 -$28
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.3536 $323
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0055 $83
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0041 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0594 -$351
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0138 $12
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.2804 -$58
Median Days in Program 3.2489 255.0000 $828
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0135 $324
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0427 $1,381
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1339 $5,255
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0105 -$505
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0426 $174
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1231 $11,910
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2512 $14,108
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1016 $5,859
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0210 $226
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0462 $1,833
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0359 -$219

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 62.8% for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.781) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.152).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.7314 -26.43%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6225 32.48%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.0559 -0.39%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0108 -1.08%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0029 0.86%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0363 -5.24%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0088 1.88%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.4020 -22.79%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0167 1.42%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0186 3.68%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.3118 -3.80%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.5461 -10.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0275 0.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0480 -4.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0098 -0.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4863 17.73%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.5873 -17.88%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0618 -1.61%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0216 0.54%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0088 0.78%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.4569 9.75%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0980 7.66%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6363 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.2559 1.67%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0118 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.5431 -7.04%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0676 3.33%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0245 -0.70%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.3010 2.20%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 274.5000 9.73%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 244.0000 -5.95%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1578 -0.14%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0135 13.48%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0427 38.14%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1339 162.36%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0105 -45.92%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0426 135.14%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1231 93.26%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2512 249.39%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1016 26.23%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0210 68.88%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0462 -0.66%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0359 -48.65%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 88.0% for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.67) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.551).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4813 2.87%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.5933 1.12%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.1940 -0.33%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.0821 0.87%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0299 -0.57%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0261 0.31%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0037 -0.11%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.3507 -1.26%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0224 -0.22%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0261 -0.51%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.5037 -1.31%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.3843 -7.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0037 -0.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0187 -0.17%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.0485 -0.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0037 -0.05%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0597 0.63%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.1642 -0.42%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0187 -0.10%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0597 0.03%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0112 -0.28%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.2537 1.13%
Low Income -0.0518 0.4627 -2.40%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0000 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.1269 4.79%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0634 -1.44%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.7724 8.74%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1978 1.14%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.6231 1.30%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.1791 1.32%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.3246 1.61%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0299 2.43%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.6866 -3.52%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 189.0000 0.15%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0135 -2.72%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0427 -1.99%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1339 -22.85%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0105 -10.37%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0426 -26.73%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1231 -44.35%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2512 -50.10%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1016 -28.98%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0210 6.38%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0462 5.68%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0359 1.48%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,898 for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 36746) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-29848).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4726 -$899
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.6034 $673
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.1983 -$25
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.0717 -$153
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0253 -$63
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0295 -$25
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0042 -$20
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.3755 -$577
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0253 -$89
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0295 -$110
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.5190 -$727
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.3713 -$707
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0000 $0
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0211 $32
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.0506 $59
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0042 $9
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0591 $100
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.1730 $655
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0211 $6
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0549 $79
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0127 -$38
Single Parent -784.4348 0.2363 -$185
Low Income -538.7097 0.4599 -$248
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0000 $0
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.1350 $244
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0506 $10
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8017 $17
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 5971.9900 $547
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1772 $239
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.6371 $44
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.1730 -$431
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.3249 $57
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0295 -$62
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.7046 -$284
Median Days in Program 2.2222 189.0000 $420
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0135 -$367
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0427 $1,565
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1339 $6,319
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0105 -$2,727
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0426 $3,659
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1231 $11,697
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2512 $12,854
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1016 $4,468
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0210 -$95
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0462 $1,029
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0359 -$208

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 76.6% for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.793) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.027).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5094 -7.69%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5991 -3.92%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2123 5.12%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0566 2.59%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0519 4.74%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0613 -4.08%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.3821 -12.58%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0236 6.24%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0094 0.05%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.5236 -10.06%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.3349 -7.98%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0283 -0.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0519 1.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.0142 -0.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0047 -0.20%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0472 -0.10%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.2170 -5.74%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0189 -2.73%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0708 -6.53%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0189 0.85%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.2264 8.36%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0896 4.21%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8538 2.45%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1887 7.32%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.1509 5.38%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.5330 -3.28%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0047 -0.21%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.7547 -7.27%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 178.0000 -5.72%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 112.5000 -3.08%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.2689 4.36%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0135 -10.87%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0427 19.00%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1339 131.98%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0105 -61.51%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0426 51.96%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1231 197.64%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2512 179.94%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1016 15.36%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0210 136.87%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0462 -13.16%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0359 -38.86%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 80.1% for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.011) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.812).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5748 3.42%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0401 0.49%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2190 -3.15%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3212 -6.60%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1934 0.20%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0657 -0.41%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0018 0.04%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.4416 -1.83%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0128 -0.43%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0182 0.28%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.5000 3.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0438 -1.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0128 1.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0055 0.27%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1259 3.46%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1697 0.60%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1150 -0.54%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0055 -0.08%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9106 3.41%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0365 -0.73%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0876 0.56%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0146 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2865 -2.05%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.6971 2.44%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.4161 -3.61%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.2062 -0.89%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.0420 0.19%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0128 -0.19%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0657 0.49%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0292 -0.10%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0456 0.17%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.6113 0.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.2464 0.37%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 196.0000 -0.79%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0135 -9.13%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0427 -8.03%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1339 -18.22%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0105 -7.65%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0426 -9.10%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1231 -31.47%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2512 0.62%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1016 -4.01%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0210 -22.62%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0462 15.25%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0359 -5.34%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,288 for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 13539) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10251).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5918 -$1,111.17
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0230 -$2.12
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2015 -$263.82
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3240 -$345.52
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1990 $129.24
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0587 $112.27
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0026 $1.66
Race: Black -886.3703 0.4464 -$395.70
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0000 $0.00
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0128 -$2.35
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0179 $16.66
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.5306 $734.34
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0587 -$48.59
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0179 $3.09
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0077 $51.06
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1556 $95.51
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1352 $73.85
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0867 -$42.95
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0051 $12.53
Low Income -305.7985 0.9107 -$278.50
Homeless 983.9044 0.0357 $35.14
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0918 -$117.98
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0204 $20.61
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.3189 $272.48
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.6658 -$188.74
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.3622 -$228.31
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.2168 -$100.31
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.0510 $8.22
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0128 -$2.35
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0434 -$71.94
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0357 -$19.27
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0561 $5.85
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.6071 -$2.63
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.2602 -$7.25
Median Days in Program 0.5942 201.0000 $119.43
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0135 -$42.69
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0427 $469.58
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1339 $2,887.31
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0105 -$581.11
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0426 $1,908.64
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1231 $1,750.33
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2512 $5,117.24
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1016 $720.19
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0210 $1,195.02
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0462 $2,014.05
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0359 -$362.22

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 60.6% for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.216) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.61).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5730 -15.80%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0236 -1.91%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2940 -26.53%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.2811 -19.67%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1695 -27.81%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0708 -0.12%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0129 -0.02%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.3820 0.16%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0322 -0.51%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0386 7.62%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.3026 -8.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0429 4.51%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0129 -0.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0064 1.22%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.3069 0.68%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.6588 13.02%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0858 0.17%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.2747 -1.96%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0536 1.47%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0773 4.28%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0773 -6.85%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.2060 -1.04%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 99.0000 -3.23%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.2575 -8.86%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0135 10.26%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0427 40.89%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1339 78.09%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0105 -44.86%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0426 -60.67%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1231 178.21%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2512 177.43%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1016 64.00%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0210 106.53%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0462 -33.93%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0359 -4.19%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 71.1% for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.274) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.562).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4528 3.63%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4877 5.29%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1861 -1.60%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0789 -0.05%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0847 -0.53%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0392 0.91%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0053 -0.12%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.3480 -5.60%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0049 0.48%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0129 -0.40%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0060 0.15%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.5017 -0.86%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2634 1.02%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0078 -0.03%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0134 0.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0624 -4.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0181 -0.95%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1035 0.90%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0355 -0.32%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0266 -0.95%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0583 1.27%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0107 -0.02%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.2278 4.62%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0834 0.77%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0042 -0.03%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0082 0.15%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0064 -0.15%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.8242 26.16%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0328 -0.51%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.7736 -2.98%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0043 -0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0058 -0.07%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0046 0.50%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0030 -0.17%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 36.0000 -0.99%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0135 2.27%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0427 6.58%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1339 13.56%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0105 -0.48%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0426 12.63%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1231 11.61%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2512 32.23%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1016 6.01%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0210 8.18%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0462 7.86%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0359 1.23%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,217 for Arkansas for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 39381) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34164).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4514 -$1,253
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.5000 $763
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.1862 $42
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0735 $127
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0655 $261
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0406 $61
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0052 -$7
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.3632 -$1,063
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0047 -$12
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0123 -$68
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0057 $61
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.5044 -$890
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2722 -$593
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0077 -$17
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0132 $28
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0623 $5
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0174 -$87
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1140 $52
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0347 -$40
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0209 -$107
Veteran -913.8967 0.0524 -$48
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0109 $17
Single Parent 660.1018 0.2320 $153
Low Income 634.4633 0.0840 $53
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0032 -$11
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0075 $14
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0058 -$63
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8835 -$194
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5795.3850 $1,513
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0261 $20
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.7831 $356
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0043 $1
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0058 -$7
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0046 $50
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0029 $5
Median Days in Program 0.8717 36.0000 $31
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0135 $499
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0427 $1,826
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1339 $6,388
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0105 $119
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0426 $2,667
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1231 $8,357
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2512 $12,934
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1016 $4,371
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0210 $872
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0462 $2,374
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0359 -$183

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x